Nigeria - PMI Composite

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 57.7 in November 2019 from 56.9 in the previous month. The reading pointed to the quickest expansion in the country's private sector since June last year, as output and new orders grew sharply. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation was modest and weaker than in October. On the price front, purchase cost inflation accelerated to a 13-month high, namely fabric, meat and raw material costs, partly linked to the closure of the border and shortages of inputs. Subsequently, output charges rose solidly and at the fastest pace in 11 months. Looking ahead, business sentiment ticked up and remained strongly positive, amid planned product launches, business expansion plans and marketing efforts.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI edged down to 56.9 in October 2019 from 57.1 in the previous month, as new orders continued to rise sharply despite the rate of expansion slowing slightly. Also, output growth quickened for the third straight month and was the strongest in 13 months and employment rose solidly and at a faster pace. Meantime, purchasing activity went up further, helping support ongoing inventory building. In terms of prices, the rate of input cost inflation quickened, reflecting higher costs for raw materials and also the impact of border closure. As such, firms raised their output prices accordingly. Looking ahead, sentiment remained strongly positive, despite easing from the previous month.

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI rose to 57.1 in September 2019 from 56.4 in the previous month, signalling a the sharpest monthly improvement in business conditions since June 2018. New order growth accelerated to a 15-month high, which led to an accumulation of backlogs of work for the fifth month running. Despite pressure on capacity, companies increased their staffing levels only modestly, and to a lesser extent than was seen in August. On the other hand, substantial growth of purchasing activity was recorded, helping to contribute to the sharpest accumulation of inventories since May 2018. On the price front, both input costs and output prices rose at slightly sharper rates in September. Looking ahead, optimism regarding the 12-month outlook for activity improved to a five-month high, due to planned investment and business expansions.

The Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI rose to 56.4 in August 2019 from 54.6 in the prior month, pointing to the strongest improvement in the health of the private sector since June 2018. New orders growth was the fastest in 14 months and output rose the most in nearly a year. In addition, employment increased at a solid pace, and one that was the fastest since June 2018. Purchasing activity went up the most in 14 months, and stocks of purchases also rose sharply, to the greatest extent in 2019 so far. Regarding prices, input costs were higher amid higher raw material prices, which led output prices to rise, albeit only marginally. Looking ahead, planned investment in new products and branches, as well as predictions of new order growth, supported optimism that activity will rise over the coming year.

The Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI edged down to 54.6 in July 2019 from 54.8 in the previous month, but still signalling a marked monthly improvement in business conditions across the Nigerian private sector. New business increased sharply, with the rate of growth quickening for the second month running. Output also rose at a marked pace, albeit one that was softer than in June and one of the slowest for two years. Also, employment rose modestly for the twenty-seventh successive month. Purchasing activity expanded at a sharp pace again in July, with inventories increasing to the greatest extent since January. In terms of prices, inflationary pressures remained relatively muted, despite both input costs and output prices rising at slightly faster rates than seen in June. Looking ahead, business expansion plans supported continued optimism that output will increase over the coming year, although sentiment dipped to a seven-month low.

The Stanbic IBTC Nigeria PMI increased to 54.8 in June 2019 from 52.9 in the previous month. The reading signalled a marked improvement in business conditions in the Nigerian private sector that was the strongest since December, as both new orders and output rose quicker. Meanwhile, the rate of job creation slowed and was only slight. On the price front, overall input costs rose only marginally and at the slowest pace since January 2015; and the rate of output charge inflation was at an 11-month low as some firms offered discounts to attract customers. Regarding business confidence, sentiment remained strong, linked to business expansion plans, including the opening of new outlets.