Russia - Tasso di interesse

The Central Bank of Russia slashed its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bps to 6.50 percent on October 25th, surprising markets who expected a 25bps reduction. It is the fourth rate cut this year, as inflation slowdown is overshooting the forecast and inflation expectations continue to decrease. The central bank lowered its annual inflation outlook for 2019 to 3.2–3.7% from 4.0–4.5%.

The Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark one-week repo rate for the third straight month by 25bps to 7 percent on September 6th as expected, saying inflation slowdown is continuing while inflation expectations remain elevated. Policymakers added that risks of a global economic slowdown have increased while risks of inflation accelerating or slowing down by the year-end are balanced. The central bank trimmed its 2019 growth forecast to 0.8-1.3% from 1.0-1.5% and lowered its end-of-year annual inflation forecast for 2019 to 4.0-4.5% from 4.2-4.7%.

The Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 25bps to 7.25 percent on July 26th and said more cuts were likely later this year amid slowing inflation and global growth concerns. It follows a 25bps cut in the previous meeting, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest since August of 2018 as widely expected.

The Bank of Russia cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5 percent and signaled more rate cuts were likely in the next few months, as inflation continues to slow amid weaker than expected economic growth. Policymakers also lowered their end-of-year annual inflation forecast for 2019 to 4.2-4.7 percent from 4.7-5.2 percent previously estimated. Moving on, the central bank sees annual inflation staying close to 4 percent.

The Bank of Russia held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.75 percent during its April meeting, as widely expected, saying inflation started to slow after hitting a two-year high in March. Policymakers also said that the decision to hike rates in September and December were sufficient to curb the effects of one-off pro-inflationary factors and that there is a possibility of turning to cutting the key rate in Q2-Q3 2019. The bank expects annual inflation to return to 4 percent in the first half of 2020.

The Bank of Russia left its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.75 percent on March 22nd, in line with market expectations, saying inflation is holding lower than expected after a VAT increase in January. Also, policymakers said short-term pro-inflationary risks have decreased. The central bank lowered its end-of-year annual inflation forecast in 2019 to 4.7-5.2 percent from 5.0-5.5 percent previously expected, before returning to 4 percent in the first half of 2020.