Australia - Primo-Economico-Indice

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in October 2019, following a marginally revised 0.12 percent decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -0.91 percent in October from -1.01 percent in September. "We expect that by next February the Board will have received enough information on the impact of the three cuts we have seen since June to acknowledge the need to reduce the cash rate by a further 0.25 percent, maintain a clear easing bias and consider introducing unconventional policies," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in September 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.92 percent in September from –0.24 percent in August. “The growth rate is now materially below trend and is signaling that growth through the first half of 2020 is likely to remain below trend. That profile is broadly consistent with Westpac’s forecasts which have grown in the first half of 2020 at an annualized pace of 2.4 percent consistent with the overall growth pace in 2020 of 2.4 percent, said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia droped by 0.3 percent month-over-month in August 2019, reversing from a 0.1 percent rise in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.35 percent in August from 0.01 percent in July. "At this stage, we continue to see no reason why the central bank should delay the move with a cut in October looking to be the better option," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia increased by 0.1 percent month-over-month in July 2019, reversing from a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to 0.05 percent in July from -0.09 percent in June. “This is first above trend read since November last year. Further confirmation of this around trend reading would be consistent with the economy growing around trend for the last three or four months of 2019 and well into the first half of 2020," said Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in June 2019, the same pace as in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -0.02 percent in June from -0.47 percent in May.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in May 2019, the same pace as in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose slightly to -0.45 percent in May from -0.49 percent in April.