A data-heavy week lies ahead for the US, with market focus on the delayed jobs report, November CPI, and retail sales. The Labor Department will release nonfarm payrolls for both October and November; however, the unemployment rate will be published only for November, as October data were not collected due to the government funding lapse and will not be reconstructed. Consensus expectations point to a 35K increase in November nonfarm payrolls, including a 40K rise in private-sector jobs, while the jobless rate is projected to remain at 4.4%. The November CPI is expected to show both headline and core inflation at 3.2%, above the Fed’s 2% target. Retail sales for October are forecast to rise 0.2%, matching September’s gain, which was the slowest since May. Other key US releases include December flash S&P Global PMIs, the NY Empire State and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing indices, the NAHB Housing Market Index, existing home sales for November, October capital flows, and the delayed business-inventories report for September. Investors will also monitor remarks from several Federal Reserve officials for policy signals into 2026, along with earnings from Micron Technology, Accenture, FedEx, and Nike. In Mexico, the central bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday. In Canada, attention will turn to a busy calendar featuring inflation data, retail sales, housing starts, and new home prices.
US Congress, Washington DC
In Europe, monetary-policy decisions will take center stage as both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday. For the ECB, incoming data have changed little since October: growth remains weak but stable, and inflation continues to ease along the expected path. Policymakers are therefore widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Focus will be on updated ECB staff projections, particularly after some economists argued that the next major move could ultimately be a rate increase, given firmer-than-expected economic resilience. In contrast, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. UK inflation has continued to drift lower, reaching 3.6% in October, and is projected to ease further to around 3.5% in November. While inflation remains above target, cooling price pressures and softer domestic demand are seen as sufficient to push a previously divided MPC toward another rate cut. Elsewhere in Europe, Sweden, Norway, Hungary, and the Czech Republic are all expected to hold rates steady, while Russia is forecast to deliver a fifth consecutive cut. On the data front, flash PMIs are due across major economies. The Euro Area’s services sector is expected to post its strongest expansion since May 2023, while manufacturing is projected to stabilize. German sentiment indicators should improve, with the ZEW survey seen rising to a five-month high and the Ifo index to a four-month high. The UK will release unemployment, inflation, and retail sales data; the jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.1%, the highest since early 2021, with wage growth slowing to its weakest pace in more than a year. Other releases include the Euro Area’s flash consumer sentiment, industrial production, and trade balance; Germany’s wholesale and producer prices; the UK’s CBI industrial trends and distributive trades surveys; and Switzerland’s foreign trade data.
European Central Bank, Frankfurt
In China, markets will watch November industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and unemployment figures. The latest house price index and foreign direct investment data will also be in focus. In Japan, attention will turn to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, where policymakers are expected to raise the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. Additional key releases include the Tankan business sentiment survey, trade data, inflation figures, machinery orders, and December flash PMIs. In India, investors will assess November trade, inflation, and unemployment data, along with December flash PMI reports. In Australia, the Westpac consumer confidence index and December flash PMIs will be closely watched. Across the region, markets will monitor trade data from Singapore, Malaysia, and New Zealand, alongside rate decisions from central banks in Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Pakistan. New Zealand will also release its Q3 GDP report.