The global economy will continue to depend on the development of talks between the US delegation and Iranian counterparts regarding their peace deal. The volume of tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz picked up toward the end of the month and energy prices tumbled, easing the market's view of pro-inflationary risk and a Fed rate hike this year. Insights on the other side of the Fed's mandate will be unveiled this week with June's jobs report, to be released on Thursday. The median consensus is that the US economy added 114 thousand non-farm payrolls to maintain the unemployment rate at 4.3%, while wage growth is expected to remain at a monthly 0.3%. Other labor market data includes the ADP report, currently set to show steady private-sector payroll gains of 118 thousand, while the JOLTS is expected to show a slowdown of 7.28 million job openings in May. Challenger and Gray job cuts are also awaited. In turn, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is forecast to ease slightly to 53.7. Other key releases include factory orders, set to slow on the month, S&P/Case-Schiller home prices, and the Conference Board consumer confidence index. US markets will be closed on Friday in observance of the 4th of July holiday. Meanwhile, both Fed Chairman Warsh and BoC Governor Macklem will speak in the ECB's Forum on Central Banking. The spotlight on Canadian economic data will be on the preliminary monthly GDP estimate for May. Brazil will post industrial production, and Mexico will updated business and consumer confidence indexes.

Washington DC, US

Preliminary inflation data will be the main focus in Europe, with CPI releases due from the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. In the Euro Area, annual inflation is expected to ease to 3% in June from 3.2% in May, supported by lower energy prices following recent declines in oil markets. The core rate is expected to remain unchanged at 2.6%, its highest level in over a year. In Germany, inflation is forecast to edge down to 2.5% from 2.6%, while in Spain it is expected to remain steady at 3.2%. Attention will also turn to the annual European Central Bank forum on central banking, held in Sintra from June 29 to July 1. The event is likely to be closely watched for monetary policy signals, with participation from major central bankers including Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey. Labour market data will also be in focus, with unemployment figures due from the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, and Spain. In Germany, the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 6.4% after briefly dipping to 6.3% in May. The Euro Area rate is expected to remain at 6.3%, while Italy is forecast to stay unchanged at 5.1%. In the UK, the calendar includes mortgage data, second estimates of Q1 GDP, Nationwide house price indices, and updated PMI surveys. Manufacturing PMIs for Spain and Italy are expected to signal continued, albeit moderate, expansion consistent with prior readings. In France, industrial production is expected to decline after two consecutive months of gains. Additional releases include the Eurozone business sentiment survey, Germany’s retail sales, and a broader set of Swiss data including inflation, retail sales, and KOF leading indicators. In Switzerland, these indicators will help gauge domestic demand momentum. Turkey will also publish inflation, trade balance, and unemployment data.

Frankfurt, Germany

In China, investors will focus on the official NBS and private RatingDog manufacturing and services PMI readings for June for fresh insight into the health of the world’s second-largest economy, with both sectors expected to be close to stagnation. In Japan, the Tankan quarterly business sentiment survey is expected to show a slight deterioration in confidence in Q2. Elsewhere, upcoming data releases include final S&P Global PMIs, along with May retail sales, which are expected to have accelerated to 3.2%, and industrial production, which likely rose at a faster pace of 1.1%. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 2.5%, while housing starts are forecast to have surged 31.8% in May. In India, markets will watch industrial output data for May, alongside the latest government budget figures. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish minutes from its June policy meeting, when it kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%. Other key releases include the Ai Group Industry Index, building permits, commodity prices, and trade data, with the trade surplus expected to widen to around $2.2 billion in May. Across the broader region, trade data are due from South Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam, while inflation figures will be released in South Korea, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Vietnam will also report second-quarter GDP. PMI data from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore is also due.