Americas

The US economic calendar is packed next week, with a series of labor-market and inflation data releases set to provide fresh clues on the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. A number of Fed officials are also scheduled to speak, while earnings from Micron Technology and Nike will be closely watched. The highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report on Friday is expected to show the US economy added 100,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is seen rising to 4.2% from 4.1%. Earlier in the week, JOLTS job openings are forecast to fall to 7.23 million in August from 7.27 million in July, while the ADP employment report is expected to show a net increase of 70,000 private-sector jobs in September. Beyond the labor market, investors will focus on the personal income and outlays report and the ISM manufacturing PMI. Personal spending is expected to rise 0.8% in August, accelerating from 0.2% in July, while income growth is seen holding at 0.4%. The PCE price index is forecast to increase 0.4% month-on-month, with the core measure rising 0.3%, both accelerating from 0.2% in July. The ISM manufacturing PMI is also expected to point to stronger activity in September. Other US releases include factory orders, the advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, the Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index, Chicago PMI and the final reading of second-quarter GDP. Elsewhere in America, markets will monitor Canada’s monthly GDP data, Mexico’s business confidence and trade balance, Brazil’s unemployment rate and industrial output, as well as S&P Global manufacturing PMIs across the region. In Brazil, the October 4 election is approaching and is likely to remain a key focus for markets, with traders closely monitoring the latest polls as the race between incumbent President Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, remains closely contested.

New York, NY, US

Europe

Investors will focus on flash inflation data from major economies, including the Euro Area, Germany, Italy, France and Spain. Eurozone annual inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.5%, its highest level since September 2023, while core inflation is forecast at 2.6%, matching May’s 13-month high. Manufacturing PMIs for Italy and Spain are expected to indicate stabilisation in the sector, while Swiss manufacturing growth is projected to moderate but remain strong. At the same time, Euro Area unemployment is forecast to hold at 6.4% for a third consecutive month, and Germany’s rate is also expected to remain at 6.4%, its highest level since 2020. Other data releases to watch include the Euro Area business survey, German retail sales, and unemployment figures from France, Italy and Spain. In the UK, investors will monitor the final GDP growth and business investment figures for Q2, house prices and Bank of England mortgage data, while Swiss inflation and KOF leading indicators, alongside Turkey’s unemployment rate and trade balance, will also be in focus.

Frankfurt, Germany

Asia Pacific

In China, investors will focus on the September PMIs, with data from both the NBS and RatingDog expected to point to a modest improvement in manufacturing and services activity. August industrial profits will also be released. Meanwhile, Chinese markets will be closed from October 1 to October 7 for the National Day holidays. In Japan, investors will scrutinize the Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions from its September meeting, at which two members dissented from the decision on the policy rate. Other key releases include industrial production, which is expected to have rebounded by 1.7% in August, and retail sales, with annual growth forecast to slow to 3.3%. The Tankan business survey is also due, with the large manufacturers’ outlook index expected to rise to 22. The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 2.4%, while Tokyo’s CPI report is expected to show core inflation accelerating to 2.4% from 1.8%. In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% next week, supported by a resilient labor market, solid GDP growth and elevated inflation. Australia will also release its August inflation data. Other key releases include preliminary building approvals, which are expected to decline 0.9% month-on-month, private-sector credit, forecast to rise 0.5% at a slightly slower pace, and trade data, which are expected to show a slightly wider trade surplus. In India, industrial production growth is expected to slow to 6%. Elsewhere in the region, inflation data are due from Indonesia, South Korea and Vietnam, while trade figures are expected from South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam will also release third-quarter GDP data, while PPI figures are scheduled for Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines. Finally, manufacturing PMI reports are due from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.

Sydney, Australia